Brentford vs Everton: match prediction

Brentford

VS

Everton

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

43%Brentford

23%Draw

34%Everton

A slight edge: Brentford, 43% against 34%.

Expected goals and likely score

1.73Brentford · model expected goals · Everton1.51

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4	6	4	2	1
1	7	10	8	4	1
2	6	9	7	3	1
3	3	5	4	2	1
4	1	2	2	1	0

In the model 1:1 comes up most often (about 10%), then 2:1 and 1:2.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

The model expects roughly equal chances: xG Brentford 1.73, Everton 1.51. Little to choose on recent results: Brentford 5 points from the last 5 matches, Everton 7 points.

Form: recent matches

BrentfordDLDWL

EvertonDLLWW

Team comparison

86

League position

1416

Points

13.114.6

Expected points (xPTS)

1.591.70

xG per match

1.601.55

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table → · EPL: next round predictions