EPL: points against performance
The table shows how many points a club has won and how many its chances deserved (xPTS). The Δ gap is either a cushion or a regression risk.
More points than performance: 
Arsenal, 
Brighton, 
Liverpool, 
Chelsea, 
Aston Villa.
Fewer points than performance: 
Bournemouth, 
Fulham, 
Nottingham Forest, 
Manchester United, 
Sunderland, 
Crystal Palace.
xPTS table
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1 | 10 | 27 | 19.0 | +8.0 | 1.69 | 0.97 |
| Brighton | 2 | 10 | 22 | 18.2 | +3.8 | 2.19 | 1.48 |
 Manchester City | 3 | 10 | 21 | 20.9 | +0.1 | 2.32 | 1.25 |
| Liverpool | 4 | 10 | 18 | 14.9 | +3.1 | 1.57 | 1.39 |
| Chelsea | 5 | 10 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | 1.57 | 1.75 |
 Everton | 6 | 10 | 16 | 14.6 | +1.4 | 1.70 | 1.55 |
| Bournemouth | 7 | 10 | 15 | 18.6 | −3.6 | 2.03 | 1.15 |
 Brentford | 8 | 10 | 14 | 13.1 | +0.9 | 1.59 | 1.60 |
 Leeds United | 9 | 10 | 14 | 13.9 | +0.1 | 1.39 | 1.32 |
| Aston Villa | 10 | 10 | 13 | 10.4 | +2.5 | 1.47 | 2.17 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 11 | 10 | 12 | 14.3 | −2.3 | 1.44 | 1.38 |
 Newcastle United | 12 | 10 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 | 1.24 | 1.80 |
 Hull City | 13 | 10 | 11 | 9.0 | +2.0 | 1.03 | 1.67 |
 Ipswich Town | 14 | 10 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | 1.35 | 2.16 |
| Fulham | 15 | 10 | 10 | 13.9 | −3.9 | 1.60 | 1.54 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16 | 10 | 9 | 17.6 | −8.6 | 1.77 | 1.14 |
 Coventry City | 17 | 10 | 9 | 9.8 | −0.8 | 1.05 | 1.62 |
| Manchester United | 18 | 10 | 8 | 12.5 | −4.5 | 1.83 | 1.89 |
| Sunderland | 19 | 10 | 8 | 14.2 | −6.2 | 1.62 | 1.74 |
| Crystal Palace | 20 | 10 | 7 | 9.5 | −2.5 | 1.50 | 2.37 |
All EPL matches with xG → · EPL top scorers with xG → · Fantasy picks for the EPL → · EPL: next round predictions · See the league on the interactive matrix →
Who leads EPL by xPTS, i.e. by quality of play?
By xPTS the top spot in EPL belongs to Manchester City: 20.9 expected points against 21 actually won, which is 3rd place in the league table.
Why does one team lead by xG while another leads by points?
Points depend on how many chances a team converted, while xPTS is built on their quality: how many points the team's shots and the shots against its goal deserved. A team that scores more than its xG wins matches that were even on the pitch and sits higher than it plays; when finishing evens out, the gap usually shrinks. In EPL right now Arsenal is ahead on points (27 points, 19.0 by performance, 2nd by xPTS), while Manchester City is the best by performance.
What is the xPTS table?
xPTS means expected points. For every match we use the quality of both teams' chances to work out how many points each deserved and add them up over the season. The difference between actual and expected points shows whether a team is lucky or falling short. It is an assessment of play, not a forecast of results.
Who is the luckiest and who the unluckiest in EPL?
Arsenal has the most points above performance: 8.0 more than its chances gave. Nottingham Forest falls shortest: 8.6 points below what its chances gave. Over a long run such a gap usually shrinks, though on shorter stretches it can persist.