EPL fantasy: who to pick for Round 11
The list comes from two things: how much a player creates per 90 minutes (xG + xA) and how favourable his club's next match is. We know nothing about injuries or rotation — this is a hint, not a line-up.
Who to pick
Output per 90 minutes multiplied by the points his club is expected to take in the next match.
| Player | Club | Opponent | xG+xA per 90 | Club's chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Foden |  Manchester City | home to Fulham | 1.09 | 67% | 0.80 |
| Erling Haaland | Manchester City | home to Fulham | 1.07 | 67% | 0.79 |
| Jéremy Doku | Manchester City | home to Fulham | 0.94 | 67% | 0.69 |
| Mathis Cherki | Manchester City | home to Fulham | 0.86 | 67% | 0.63 |
| Bukayo Saka |  Arsenal | away to Newcastle United | 0.76 | 58% | 0.50 |
| Malick Yalcouyé |  Brighton | away to Hull City | 0.70 | 60% | 0.47 |
| Iliman Ndiaye | Manchester City | home to Fulham | 0.61 | 67% | 0.45 |
| Pascal Groß | Brighton | away to Hull City | 0.63 | 60% | 0.42 |
| Alexander Isak |  Liverpool | home to Manchester United | 0.70 | 53% | 0.42 |
| Sávio |  Tottenham Hotspur | home to Ipswich Town | 0.57 | 63% | 0.40 |
| Evanilson |  Bournemouth | home to Nottingham Forest | 0.67 | 49% | 0.38 |
| Marcus Tavernier | Bournemouth | home to Nottingham Forest | 0.67 | 49% | 0.38 |
Running hot
Scoring more than their chances are worth. Finishing like that rarely holds: they cost a lot and the return can drop.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers |  Chelsea | 5 | 2.26 | +2.7 |
| Nicolas Jackson |  Aston Villa | 5 | 2.73 | +2.3 |
| Marcus Tavernier | Bournemouth | 5 | 3.18 | +1.8 |
| Antoine Semenyo | Manchester City | 2 | 0.42 | +1.6 |
| Mathis Cherki | Manchester City | 4 | 2.47 | +1.5 |
| João Pedro | Chelsea | 5 | 3.61 | +1.4 |
Owed goals
The chances are there, the goals are not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will probably come back — and they are cheap now.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzalo García |  Fulham | 1 | 4.63 | −3.6 |
| Thierno Barry |  Everton | 3 | 6.44 | −3.4 |
| Rayan | Bournemouth | 1 | 4.17 | −3.2 |
| Liam Delap |  Nottingham Forest | 1 | 3.23 | −2.2 |
| Thiago |  Brentford | 2 | 4.22 | −2.2 |
| Iliman Ndiaye | Manchester City | 0 | 2.20 | −2.2 |
Understat data, refreshed twice a day. We do not give betting tips and we do not know about injuries or suspensions — check the line-ups.
Who to pick in EPL fantasy for Round 11?
Top of our list: Phil Foden (Manchester City; opponent: Fulham, home); Erling Haaland (Manchester City; opponent: Fulham, home); Jéremy Doku (Manchester City; opponent: Fulham, home). The list is built from a player's output per 90 minutes and the strength of his club's next match; we do not know about injuries and rotation, so check them before choosing.
How is the EPL fantasy ranking calculated?
For each player we take xG and xA per 90 minutes (how much he creates and scores by chance quality) and multiply by his club's expected points in the next match divided by three. Players with at least 270 minutes are included: 78 right now. It is an assessment of play, not a forecast and not betting.
Who in EPL scores more than his chances are worth?
Morgan Rogers (Chelsea) is furthest above xG: 5 goals from 2.3 xG, 2.7 more. Finishing like that usually does not hold all season, so paying a lot for such a player is risky.
Who in EPL has fewer goals than his chances are worth?
Gonzalo García (Fulham) is furthest below xG: 1 goal from 4.6 xG, 3.6 fewer. If the chance quality holds, goals usually move toward xG, but over a handful of matches that is no guarantee.