The list comes from two things: how much a player creates per 90 minutes (xG + xA) and how favourable his club's next match is. We know nothing about injuries or rotation — this is a hint, not a line-up.
Output per 90 minutes multiplied by the points his club is expected to take in the next match.
| Player | Club | Opponent | xG+xA per 90 | Club's chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo | Manchester United | home to Tottenham Hotspur | 0.81 | 74% | 0.64 |
| Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | home to Leeds United | 0.98 | 56% | 0.63 |
| Bruno Fernandes | Manchester United | home to Tottenham Hotspur | 0.78 | 74% | 0.62 |
| Dan Ndoye | Nottingham Forest | away to Crystal Palace | 0.93 | 56% | 0.59 |
| Erling Haaland | Manchester City | away to Liverpool | 1.08 | 39% | 0.51 |
| Thiago | Brentford | away to Aston Villa | 0.63 | 69% | 0.47 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | Nottingham Forest | away to Crystal Palace | 0.71 | 56% | 0.45 |
| Martin Odegaard | Arsenal | home to Leeds United | 0.70 | 56% | 0.45 |
| Thierno Barry | Everton | away to Hull City | 0.88 | 41% | 0.44 |
| Pascal Groß | Brighton | away to Sunderland | 0.82 | 42% | 0.40 |
| Matheus Cunha | Manchester United | home to Tottenham Hotspur | 0.50 | 74% | 0.40 |
| Mathis Cherki | Manchester City | away to Liverpool | 0.83 | 39% | 0.39 |
Scoring more than their chances are worth. Finishing like that rarely holds: they cost a lot and the return can drop.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathis Cherki | Manchester City | 3 | 1.06 | +1.9 |
| Antoine Semenyo | Manchester City | 2 | 0.40 | +1.6 |
| Morgan Rogers | Chelsea | 3 | 1.44 | +1.6 |
| Kevin Schade | Brentford | 3 | 1.65 | +1.4 |
| Marcus Tavernier | Bournemouth | 3 | 1.69 | +1.3 |
| Pascal Groß | Brighton | 3 | 1.74 | +1.3 |
The chances are there, the goals are not. If the chance quality holds, the goals come back — and they are cheap now.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago | Brentford | 1 | 3.05 | −2.0 |
| Thierno Barry | Everton | 2 | 3.85 | −1.9 |
| Oliver McBurnie | Hull City | 0 | 1.64 | −1.6 |
| Rayan | Bournemouth | 0 | 1.59 | −1.6 |
| Gonzalo García | Fulham | 1 | 2.53 | −1.5 |
| Yoane Wissa | Newcastle United | 1 | 2.43 | −1.4 |
Understat data, refreshed twice a day. We do not give betting tips and we do not know about injuries or suspensions — check the line-ups.