Hull City vs Brighton: match prediction

Hull City

VS

Brighton

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

19%Hull City

21%Draw

60%Brighton

Clear favourites: Brighton, 60% to win against 19%.

Expected goals and likely score

1.07Hull City · model expected goals · Brighton2.04

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4	9	9	6	3
1	5	10	10	7	3
2	3	5	5	4	2
3	1	2	2	1	1
4	0	0	1	0	0

Matches with chances like these most often end 1:2 (about 10%), then 1:1 and 0:2.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

The model expects Brighton to create clearly more: xG 2.04 against 1.07. A big gap in form: Brighton 12 points from the last 5 matches, Hull City only 3 points. The table flatters Brighton: 3.8 points above their play, and a gap like that usually narrows.

Form: recent matches

Hull CityDLDDL

BrightonWWLWW

Team comparison

132

League position

1122

Points

918.2

Expected points (xPTS)

1.032.19

xG per match

1.671.48

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table → · EPL: next round predictions