Liverpool vs Manchester United: match prediction

Liverpool

Manchester United

EPL · Round 11 · 22 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

53%Liverpool

21%Draw

26%Manchester United

Liverpool go in as favourites: 53% to win, 26% for the opponent.

Expected goals and likely score

2.08Liverpool · model expected goals · Manchester United1.42

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals
	0	1	2	3	4
0	3	4	3	1	1
1	6	9	6	3	1
2	7	9	7	3	1
3	5	6	5	2	1
4	2	3	2	1	0

The most common scores at these chances: 2:1 (about 9%), 1:1 and 2:2.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

A clear edge in chances: Liverpool 2.08, the opponent 1.42. The two sides are at opposite ends on form: Liverpool 9 points from the last 5 matches, Manchester United just 3 points. Manchester United are well short: 4.5 points below their play. Teams like that usually catch up over time, but there is no guarantee.

Form: recent matches

LiverpoolLWWLW

Manchester UnitedDDLLD

Team comparison

418

League position

188

Points

14.912.5

Expected points (xPTS)

1.571.83

xG per match

1.391.89

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table → · EPL: next round predictions