Alavés vs Deportivo La Coruña: match prediction

Alavés

VS

Deportivo La Coruña

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

41%Alavés

27%Draw

32%Deportivo La Coruña

Alavés are a little stronger in the model: 41% to win, 32% for the opponent.

Expected goals and likely score

1.32Alavés · model expected goals · Deportivo La Coruña1.14

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	10	6	2	1
1	11	13	7	3	1
2	7	8	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1	0
4	1	1	1	0	0

In the model 1:1 comes up most often (about 13%), then 1:0 and 0:1.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

The model expects roughly equal chances: xG Alavés 1.32, Deportivo La Coruña 1.14. Form is with Deportivo La Coruña: 5 points from the last 5 matches, Alavés 2 points. Alavés are well short: 3.8 points below their play. Teams like that usually catch up over time, but there is no guarantee.

Form: recent matches

AlavésLLDLD

Deportivo La CoruñaLDLWD

Team comparison

129

League position

1315

Points

16.816.5

Expected points (xPTS)

1.361.44

xG per match

1.401.36

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table → · LaLiga: next round predictions