Athletic Club vs Espanyol: match prediction

Athletic Club

VS

Espanyol

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

60%Athletic Club

23%Draw

17%Espanyol

Athletic Club go in as favourites: 60% to win, 17% for the opponent.

Expected goals and likely score

1.76Athletic Club · model expected goals · Espanyol0.80

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	6	2	1	0
1	14	11	4	1	0
2	12	10	4	1	0
3	7	6	2	1	0
4	3	2	1	0	0

The most common scores at these chances: 1:0 (about 14%), 2:0 and 1:1.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

A clear edge in chances: Athletic Club 1.76, the opponent 0.80. Recent results favour Athletic Club: 8 points from the last 5 matches against 5 points. The table is unfair to Athletic Club: 4.2 points below their play. The gap usually narrows, though not necessarily at once.

Form: recent matches

Athletic ClubDLWWD

EspanyolDLLWD

Team comparison

713

League position

1612

Points

20.215.1

Expected points (xPTS)

1.801.09

xG per match

1.301.37

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table → · LaLiga: next round predictions