Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: match prediction

Rayo Vallecano

VS

Valencia

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

52%Rayo Vallecano

25%Draw

23%Valencia

The model rates Rayo Vallecano clearly higher: 52% against 23%.

Expected goals and likely score

1.63Rayo Vallecano · model expected goals · Valencia0.99

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	7	4	1	0
1	12	12	6	2	0
2	10	10	5	2	0
3	5	5	3	1	0
4	2	2	1	0	0

Matches with chances like these most often end 1:0 (about 12%), then 1:1 and 2:0.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

Attack against defence favours Rayo Vallecano: xG 1.63 against 0.99. Both sides are in similar shape: Rayo Vallecano 5 points from the last 5 matches, Valencia 5 points. The table is unfair to Valencia: 3.7 points below their play. The gap usually narrows, though not necessarily at once.

Form: recent matches

Rayo VallecanoDDLWL

ValenciaDDLWL

Team comparison

1419

League position

129

Points

13.512.7

Expected points (xPTS)

1.401.02

xG per match

1.721.63

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table → · LaLiga: next round predictions