Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo: match prediction

Real Madrid

VS

Celta Vigo

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

71%Real Madrid

19%Draw

11%Celta Vigo

A one-sided picture: Real Madrid win 71% of the time in the model, the opponent only 11%.

Expected goals and likely score

2.09Real Madrid · model expected goals · Celta Vigo0.66

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6	4	1	0	0
1	13	9	3	1	0
2	14	9	3	1	0
3	10	6	2	0	0
4	5	3	1	0	0

In the model 2:0 comes up most often (about 14%), then 1:0 and 3:0.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

Almost one-way traffic on expected goals: Real Madrid 2.09 against 0.66. Real Madrid are collecting points far more steadily: 15 points from the last 5 matches, the opponent 6 points. On their play Celta Vigo would have 2.7 more points than they do.

Form: recent matches

Real MadridWWWWW

Celta VigoDWDLD

Team comparison

211

League position

3013

Points

27.715.7

Expected points (xPTS)

2.551.15

xG per match

1.011.15

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table → · LaLiga: next round predictions