Sevilla vs Real Betis: match prediction

Sevilla

VS

Real Betis

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

37%Sevilla

24%Draw

39%Real Betis

No favourite: home 37%, draw 24%, away 39%.

Expected goals and likely score

1.52Sevilla · model expected goals · Real Betis1.55

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	7	6	3	1
1	7	11	8	4	2
2	5	8	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	2	1
4	1	2	1	1	0

The most common scores at these chances: 1:1 (about 11%), 1:2 and 2:1.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

Expected goals are close: Sevilla 1.52 against 1.55 for the opponent. The two sides are at opposite ends on form: Real Betis 10 points from the last 5 matches, Sevilla just 5 points. The table flatters Real Betis: 7.9 points above their play, and a gap like that usually narrows.

Form: recent matches

SevillaDLWLD

Real BetisWLDWW

Team comparison

64

League position

1826

Points

15.518.1

Expected points (xPTS)

1.261.88

xG per match

1.461.69

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table → · LaLiga: next round predictions