Leeds United — Newcastle United 4:1
Leeds United4:1
Newcastle UnitedThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Score4:1
Home xG2.29Leeds United
Away xG0.79Newcastle United
Expected points2.31 : 0.51
Who deserved it
The score matched the game: Leeds United was the better side by chances too.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 4 | 2.29 | +1.7 | 2.31 |
| Newcastle United | 1 | 0.79 | +0.2 | 0.51 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31' | Lewis Miley (own goal) | Leeds United | — | |
| 33' | Jayden Bogle | Leeds United | 0.08 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 45' | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Leeds United | 0.48 | Tarik Muharemovic |
| 58' | Noah Okafor | Leeds United | 0.05 | |
| 89' | Bazoumana Touré | Newcastle United | 0.09 |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37' | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Leeds United | 0.74 | saved |
| 40' | Harvey Barnes | Newcastle United | 0.54 | saved |
| 45' | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Leeds United | 0.48 | goal |
Shots: Leeds United 15, Newcastle United 7; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 3 and 1.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Leeds United 1.74, Newcastle United 0.54: a clear edge for Leeds United. In the second half xG was Leeds United 0.55, Newcastle United 0.26: about even. Leeds United scored 4 from 2.29 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.
How it fits the season
Leeds United: +0.1 for the season (9 in the table). Newcastle United: +2.1 (12). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.