Newcastle United

Next match

Arsenal · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 18% · draw 24% · defeat 58%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A tough run.

What the numbers say

Points. 12 points from 9.9 xPTS (+2.1). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 17th in the league, but 12th in the table. Source of the surplus: conceding less than expected (−2.0 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.24 xG per match — 18th of 20 (league average 1.60): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 13 goals from 12.4 xG — finishing is on par. What they create is what they score.

Defence. 1.80 xGA per match — 16th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.60): allows plenty of chances near its own goal. Conceded 16 goals from 18.0 xGA — 11% fewer than expected. The gap is small, still within the usual spread.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.21 per match: expected pace 1.0 points per match vs the current 1.2.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.20 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.02. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.1 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Newcastle United and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full EPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league