Pitch Radar

Liverpool vs Arsenal: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 9 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win33%Liverpool
Draw26%
Away win41%Arsenal
Expected points, home1.24

What to expect

No clear favourite: 33% home, 26% draw, 41% away. Attack against defence: Arsenal should create more, 1.63 expected goals a match against 1.37. Read the table with care: Arsenal have taken 2.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Liverpool6597.9+1.11.651.39
Arsenal25129.8+2.21.881.09

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →