Liverpool — Arsenal 0:1

Liverpool

0:1

Arsenal

EPL · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Score0:1

Home xG1.21Liverpool

Away xG0.86Arsenal

Expected points1.62 : 1.08

Who deserved it

Liverpool created more (1.21 xG against 0.86) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Liverpool	0	1.21	−1.2	1.62
Arsenal	1	0.86	+0.1	1.08

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
15'	Kai Havertz	Arsenal	0.54	Declan Rice

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
15'	Kai Havertz	Arsenal	0.54	goal
42'	Alexis Mac Allister	Liverpool	0.28	off target, header
76'	Ronald Araújo	Liverpool	0.12	blocked

Shots: Liverpool 17, Arsenal 10; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Liverpool 0.64, Arsenal 0.69: about even. In the second half xG was Liverpool 0.54, Arsenal 0.17: a small edge for Liverpool. Liverpool scored 0 from 1.21 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

Shot data: Understat. xG rates the quality of a chance; it is not a forecast of the result.

How it fits the season

Liverpool: +3.1 for the season (4 in the table). Arsenal: +8.0 (1). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

All EPL matches with xG →