Arsenal

Next match

Newcastle United · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 58% · draw 24% · defeat 18%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 27 points from 19.0 xPTS (+8.0) — the biggest overperformance in the league. By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 2nd in the league, but 1st in the table. Source of the surplus: conceding less than expected (−4.7 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.69 xG per match — 7th of 20 (league average 1.60): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 15 goals from 16.9 xG — 11% fewer than expected. A small finishing shortfall, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 0.97 xGA per match — 1st of 20 for solidity (league average 1.60): allows less in front of its own goal than anyone in the league. Conceded 5 goals from 9.7 xGA — 48% fewer than expected. The goalkeeper and opponent misses are carrying the team; keeping this up over a full season is rare.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.80 per match: expected pace 1.9 points per match vs the current 2.7.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.70 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.67. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.3 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Arsenal and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full EPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league