The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Tottenham Hotspur: 45% against 27%. Attack against defence: level, 1.44 and 1.42 expected goals a match. Tottenham Hotspur are 3.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur | 20 | 5 | 2 | 5.5 | −3.5 | 1.16 | 1.84 |
| Coventry City | 18 | 5 | 3 | 4.5 | −1.6 | 1.00 | 1.72 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.