Pitch Radar

Levante vs Athletic Club: what the numbers say

LaLiga · Round 9 · 21 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win22%Levante
Draw20%
Away win58%Athletic Club
Expected points, home0.87

What to expect

Athletic Club are favourites: 58% to win against 22%. Attack against defence: Athletic Club should create more, 2.05 expected goals a match against 1.42. Athletic Club are 4.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Levante17656.4−1.41.552.22
Athletic Club106812.2−4.21.881.28

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table →