The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Clear favourites: Baltika Kaliningrad, 60% to win against 14%.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Matches with chances like these most often end 1:0 (about 19%), then 2:0 and 0:0.
The model expects Baltika Kaliningrad to create clearly more: xG 1.49 against 0.56. Form is with Akron Tolyatti: 8 points from the last 5 matches, Baltika Kaliningrad 4 points. Baltika Kaliningrad are well short: 5.2 points below their play. Teams like that usually catch up over time, but there is no guarantee.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table → · RPL: next round predictions