RPL round 13 predictions by xG

All 8 matches of the RPL round: the model's chances, expected goals and why the picture looks the way it does.

The most one-sided match of the round: Baltika Kaliningrad — Akron Tolyatti (60% for the favourite); the most even: Krylia Sovetov — Zenit.

• Rubin Kazan — Fakel Voronezh31 Oct, 12:15 UTCHome win 44% · draw 31% · away win 25%
• Dynamo Moscow — Akhmat Grozny31 Oct, 14:30 UTCHome win 53% · draw 27% · away win 20%
• Rodina Moscow — Krasnodar31 Oct, 16:45 UTCHome win 19% · draw 23% · away win 58%
• Orenburg — CSKA Moscow1 Nov, 10:00 UTCHome win 43% · draw 24% · away win 33%
• Dynamo Makhachkala — Rostov1 Nov, 12:15 UTCHome win 45% · draw 28% · away win 27%
• Baltika Kaliningrad — Akron Tolyatti1 Nov, 14:30 UTCHome win 60% · draw 26% · away win 14%
• Lokomotiv Moscow — Spartak Moscow1 Nov, 16:45 UTCHome win 17% · draw 20% · away win 63%
• Krylia Sovetov — Zenit2 Nov, 15:00 UTCHome win 37% · draw 27% · away win 35%

An xG model, not betting tips and not a guarantee.

What are the RPL round 13 predictions?

The most one-sided match of the round: Baltika Kaliningrad — Akron Tolyatti (60% for the favourite); the most even: Krylia Sovetov — Zenit. Below is every match: the model's chances, expected goals and why the picture looks the way it does.

How are the predictions calculated?

A Poisson model over xG works out the chances: how dangerous each side is in attack and how much it allows, with a home advantage applied. Expected goals and the likeliest scores come from the same model. It is an assessment of play, not a guarantee of the result.

Why might the favourite not win?

The highest chance this round is 63% to win: in roughly 37 cases out of a hundred the favourite does not win. Chance plays a visible part in a single match, so the model is usually more accurate over a run than in one game.

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