Dynamo Moscow vs Krasnodar: match prediction

Dynamo Moscow

VS

Krasnodar

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

53%Dynamo Moscow

25%Draw

22%Krasnodar

Clear favourites: Dynamo Moscow, 53% to win against 22%.

Expected goals and likely score

1.56Dynamo Moscow · model expected goals · Krasnodar0.90

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	8	3	1	0
1	13	12	5	2	0
2	10	9	4	1	0
3	5	5	2	1	0
4	2	2	1	0	0

In the model 1:0 comes up most often (about 13%), then 1:1 and 2:0.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

Attack against defence favours Dynamo Moscow: xG 1.56 against 0.90. The two sides are at opposite ends on form: Dynamo Moscow 12 points from the last 5 matches, Krasnodar just 5 points. Dynamo Moscow have 7.3 points more than their play earned; a cushion like that usually shrinks.

Form: recent matches

Dynamo MoscowWWLWW

KrasnodarLDDLW

Team comparison

24

League position

3126

Points

23.719.4

Expected points (xPTS)

1.451.27

xG per match

0.981.19

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table → · RPL: next round predictions