The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge: Dynamo Makhachkala, 45% against 27%.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
In the model 1:0 comes up most often (about 13%), then 1:1 and 0:0.
The model gives Dynamo Makhachkala a few more chances: 1.35 against 0.98. Rostov are collecting points far more steadily: 7 points from the last 5 matches, the opponent 1 point. The table is unfair to Dynamo Makhachkala: 3.3 points below their play. The gap usually narrows, though not necessarily at once.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table → · RPL: next round predictions