Dynamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow: match prediction

Dynamo Makhachkala

VS

Spartak Moscow

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

20%Dynamo Makhachkala

22%Draw

58%Spartak Moscow

Spartak Moscow go in as favourites: 58% to win, 20% for the opponent.

Expected goals and likely score

1.02Dynamo Makhachkala · model expected goals · Spartak Moscow1.90

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	10	10	6	3
1	6	10	10	6	3
2	3	5	5	3	2
3	1	2	2	1	1
4	0	0	0	0	0

Matches with chances like these most often end 1:1 (about 10%), then 0:1 and 1:2.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

The model expects Spartak Moscow to create clearly more: xG 1.90 against 1.02. Spartak Moscow are collecting points far more steadily: 10 points from the last 5 matches, the opponent 4 points. On their play Dynamo Makhachkala would have 2.6 more points than they do.

Form: recent matches

Dynamo MakhachkalaLDLLW

Spartak MoscowDWLWW

Team comparison

113

League position

1629

Points

18.627.5

Expected points (xPTS)

1.261.86

xG per match

1.420.89

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table → · RPL: next round predictions