The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Close, but Orenburg have a bit more: 43% against 33%.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
The most common scores at these chances: 1:1 (about 11%), 2:1 and 1:0.
The model expects roughly equal chances: xG Orenburg 1.62, CSKA Moscow 1.41. Little to choose on recent results: Orenburg 8 points from the last 5 matches, CSKA Moscow 10 points. CSKA Moscow have 4.3 points more than their play earned; a cushion like that usually shrinks.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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