Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov: match prediction

Rostov

Krylia Sovetov

RPL · Round 15 · 20 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

29%Rostov

31%Draw

40%Krylia Sovetov

A slight edge: Krylia Sovetov, 40% against 29%.

Expected goals and likely score

0.88Rostov · model expected goals · Krylia Sovetov1.08

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals
	0	1	2	3	4
0	14	15	8	3	1
1	12	13	7	3	1
2	5	6	3	1	0
3	2	2	1	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0

Matches with chances like these most often end 0:1 (about 15%), then 0:0 and 1:1.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

The model's expected goals are almost level: Rostov 0.88, Krylia Sovetov 1.08. Rostov are in better form: 11 points from the last 5 matches, the opponent 7 points. The table is unfair to Krylia Sovetov: 4.0 points below their play. The gap usually narrows, though not necessarily at once.

Form: recent matches

RostovWDWWD

Krylia SovetovDLWLW

Team comparison

League position

1918

Points

16.822

Expected points (xPTS)

0.901.35

xG per match

1.111.08

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table → · RPL: next round predictions