The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No favourite: home 37%, draw 27%, away 35%.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
In the model 1:1 comes up most often (about 13%), then 1:0 and 0:1.
Expected goals are close: Krylia Sovetov 1.24 against 1.21 for the opponent. The two sides are at opposite ends on form: Zenit 15 points from the last 5 matches, Krylia Sovetov just 8 points. The table flatters Zenit: 5.3 points above their play, and a gap like that usually narrows.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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