Rodina Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow: match prediction

Rodina Moscow

VS

Lokomotiv Moscow

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

37%Rodina Moscow

23%Draw

39%Lokomotiv Moscow

No favourite: home 37%, draw 23%, away 39%.

Expected goals and likely score

1.58Rodina Moscow · model expected goals · Lokomotiv Moscow1.63

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4	7	5	3	1
1	6	10	8	5	2
2	5	8	7	4	1
3	3	4	4	2	1
4	1	2	1	1	0

The most common scores at these chances: 1:1 (about 10%), 1:2 and 2:1.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

Expected goals are close: Rodina Moscow 1.58 against 1.63 for the opponent. Rodina Moscow are in better form: 7 points from the last 5 matches, the opponent 4 points. Lokomotiv Moscow are 2.6 points short of their play: better on chances than in the table.

Form: recent matches

Rodina MoscowLDWWL

Lokomotiv MoscowWDLLL

Team comparison

1315

League position

1211

Points

12.313.6

Expected points (xPTS)

0.941.21

xG per match

1.881.86

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table → · RPL: next round predictions