Augsburg vs Mainz 05: match prediction

Augsburg

Mainz 05

Bundesliga · Round 10 · 22 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

39%Augsburg

19%Draw

42%Mainz 05

No favourite: home 39%, draw 19%, away 42%.

Expected goals and likely score

2.26Augsburg · model expected goals · Mainz 052.34

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals
	0	1	2	3	4
0	1	2	3	2	1
1	2	5	6	5	3
2	3	6	7	5	3
3	2	5	5	4	2
4	1	3	3	2	1

In the model 2:2 comes up most often (about 7%), then 1:2 and 2:1.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

The model expects roughly equal chances: xG Augsburg 2.26, Mainz 05 2.34. Both sides are in similar shape: Augsburg 2 points from the last 5 matches, Mainz 05 3 points. Mainz 05 are well short: 4.8 points below their play. Teams like that usually catch up over time, but there is no guarantee.

Form: recent matches

AugsburgDLDLL

Mainz 05LWLLL

Team comparison

1412

League position

910

Points

10.914.8

Expected points (xPTS)

2.152.07

xG per match

2.351.74

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions