Bundesliga: points against performance
The table shows how many points a club has won and how many its chances deserved (xPTS). The Δ gap is either a cushion or a regression risk.
More points than performance: 
Borussia Dortmund, 
Werder Bremen, 
Elversberg, 
Hamburger SV.
Fewer points than performance: 
Bayern Munich, 
Hoffenheim, 
Mainz 05, 
1. FC Köln, 
Borussia Mönchengladbach.
xPTS table
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 1 | 9 | 21 | 24.8 | −3.8 | 3.59 | 0.86 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 9 | 21 | 15.7 | +5.3 | 1.79 | 1.32 |
 Freiburg | 3 | 9 | 19 | 16.8 | +2.2 | 1.79 | 1.19 |
 RB Leipzig | 4 | 9 | 18 | 17.4 | +0.6 | 2.52 | 1.70 |
 Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 9 | 16 | 15.3 | +0.7 | 2.10 | 1.63 |
| Werder Bremen | 6 | 9 | 15 | 12.4 | +2.6 | 1.59 | 1.56 |
| Elversberg | 7 | 9 | 13 | 7.3 | +5.7 | 1.52 | 2.38 |
 VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 9 | 12 | 11.1 | +0.9 | 2.12 | 2.42 |
| Hoffenheim | 9 | 9 | 12 | 14.3 | −2.3 | 2.01 | 1.66 |
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 10 | 9 | 12 | 11.1 | +0.9 | 1.88 | 2.23 |
| Hamburger SV | 11 | 9 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | 1.26 | 2.10 |
| Mainz 05 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 14.8 | −4.8 | 2.07 | 1.74 |
 Paderborn | 13 | 9 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | 1.22 | 1.81 |
 Augsburg | 14 | 9 | 9 | 10.9 | −1.9 | 2.15 | 2.35 |
| 1. FC Köln | 15 | 9 | 9 | 14.0 | −5.0 | 1.75 | 1.56 |
 Union Berlin | 16 | 9 | 7 | 7.2 | −0.2 | 1.01 | 2.21 |
 Schalke 04 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 7.6 | −1.6 | 1.21 | 2.27 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 18 | 9 | 4 | 9.3 | −5.3 | 1.75 | 2.36 |
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Bundesliga top scorers with xG → · Fantasy picks for the Bundesliga → · Bundesliga: next round predictions · See the league on the interactive matrix →
Who leads Bundesliga by xPTS, i.e. by quality of play?
Right now Bayern Munich leads both by points (21) and by performance (xPTS 24.8): first place is backed by the quality of chances.
Why does one team lead by xG while another leads by points?
Points depend on how many chances a team converted, while xPTS is built on their quality: how many points the team's shots and the shots against its goal deserved. A team that scores more than its xG wins matches that were even on the pitch and sits higher than it plays; when finishing evens out, the gap usually shrinks. In Bundesliga right now the leader by points and by performance is the same club, but others show a gap: Borussia Mönchengladbach falls shortest, 5.3 points below performance.
What is the xPTS table?
xPTS means expected points. For every match we use the quality of both teams' chances to work out how many points each deserved and add them up over the season. The difference between actual and expected points shows whether a team is lucky or falling short. It is an assessment of play, not a forecast of results.
Who is the luckiest and who the unluckiest in Bundesliga?
Elversberg has the most points above performance: 5.7 more than its chances gave. Borussia Mönchengladbach falls shortest: 5.3 points below what its chances gave. Over a long run such a gap usually shrinks, though on shorter stretches it can persist.