All 9 matches of the Bundesliga round: the model's chances, expected goals and why the picture looks the way it does.
The most one-sided match of the round: Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart (73% for the favourite); the most even: Werder Bremen — Hoffenheim.
An xG model, not betting tips and not a guarantee.
The most one-sided match of the round: Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart (73% for the favourite); the most even: Werder Bremen — Hoffenheim. Below is every match: the model's chances, expected goals and why the picture looks the way it does.
A Poisson model over xG works out the chances: how dangerous each side is in attack and how much it allows, with a home advantage applied. Expected goals and the likeliest scores come from the same model. It is an assessment of play, not a guarantee of the result.
The highest chance this round is 73% to win: in roughly 27 cases out of a hundred the favourite does not win. Chance plays a visible part in a single match, so the model is usually more accurate over a run than in one game.
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