Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Köln: match prediction

Bayern Munich

1. FC Köln

Bundesliga · Round 10 · 20 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

87%Bayern Munich

9%Draw

5%1. FC Köln

A one-sided picture: Bayern Munich win 87% of the time in the model, the opponent only 5%.

Expected goals and likely score

3.39Bayern Munich · model expected goals · 1. FC Köln0.72

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals
	0	1	2	3
0	2	1	0	0
1	6	4	1	0
2	9	7	2	1
3	11	8	3	1
4	9	7	2	1

The most common scores at these chances: 3:0 (about 11%), 2:0 and 4:0.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

Almost one-way traffic on expected goals: Bayern Munich 3.39 against 0.72. The two sides are at opposite ends on form: Bayern Munich 11 points from the last 5 matches, 1. FC Köln just 5 points. 1. FC Köln are well short: 5.0 points below their play. Teams like that usually catch up over time, but there is no guarantee.

Form: recent matches

Bayern MunichDWWDW

1. FC KölnWLDDL

Team comparison

115

League position

219

Points

24.814

Expected points (xPTS)

3.591.75

xG per match

0.861.56

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions