Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: match prediction

Bundesliga · Round 8 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

21%Union Berlin

22%Draw

58%1. FC Köln

Clear favourites: 1. FC Köln, 58% to win against 21%.

Expected goals and likely score

1.10Union Berlin · model expected goals · 1. FC Köln1.97

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals
	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	9	9	6	3
1	5	10	10	7	3
2	3	6	5	4	2
3	1	2	2	1	1
4	0	1	1	0	0

Matches with chances like these most often end 1:1 (about 10%), then 1:2 and 0:1.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

Attack against defence favours 1. FC Köln: xG 1.97 against 1.10. Little to choose on recent results: Union Berlin 5 points from the last 5 matches, 1. FC Köln 5 points. 1. FC Köln are 2.7 points short of their play: better on chances than in the table.

Form: recent matches

Union BerlinLLWDD

1. FC KölnDLWLD

Team comparison

1712

League position

Points

6.210.7

Expected points (xPTS)

1.131.81

xG per match

2.311.64

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions