Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV: match prediction

Werder Bremen

VS

Hamburger SV

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

62%Werder Bremen

21%Draw

17%Hamburger SV

The model rates Werder Bremen clearly higher: 62% against 17%.

Expected goals and likely score

2.01Werder Bremen · model expected goals · Hamburger SV0.95

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	5	2	1	0
1	10	10	5	1	0
2	10	10	5	1	0
3	7	7	3	1	0
4	4	3	2	1	0

Matches with chances like these most often end 2:0 (about 10%), then 1:0 and 2:1.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

Almost one-way traffic on expected goals: Werder Bremen 2.01 against 0.95. Little to choose on recent results: Werder Bremen 8 points from the last 5 matches, Hamburger SV 9 points. The table flatters Hamburger SV: 3.9 points above their play, and a gap like that usually narrows.

Form: recent matches

Werder BremenDDWWL

Hamburger SVWWLLW

Team comparison

611

League position

1512

Points

12.48.1

Expected points (xPTS)

1.591.26

xG per match

1.562.10

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions