The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Arsenal was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 0 | 0.28 | −0.3 | 0.44 |
| Arsenal | 1 | 1.52 | −0.5 | 2.32 |
Aston Villa: +0.0 for the season (16 in the table). Arsenal: +2.2 (2). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.