Aston Villa — Arsenal 0:1
Aston Villa0:1
ArsenalThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Score0:1
Home xG0.28Aston Villa
Away xG1.52Arsenal
Expected points0.44 : 2.32
Who deserved it
The score matched the game: Arsenal was the better side by chances too.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 0 | 0.28 | −0.3 | 0.44 |
| Arsenal | 1 | 1.52 | −0.5 | 2.32 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58' | Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | 0.94 | Riccardo Calafiori |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58' | Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | 0.94 | goal |
| 7' | Gabriel | Arsenal | 0.33 | off target, header, from a corner |
| 56' | Martin Odegaard | Arsenal | 0.09 | off target, from a free kick |
Shots: Aston Villa 7, Arsenal 7; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 2.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Aston Villa 0.09, Arsenal 0.47: a small edge for Arsenal. In the second half xG was Aston Villa 0.20, Arsenal 1.07: a clear edge for Arsenal. The edge in chances lasted the whole match.
How it fits the season
Aston Villa: +2.5 for the season (10 in the table). Arsenal: +8.0 (1). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.