Aston Villa

Next match

Sunderland · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 36% · draw 21% · defeat 42%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 13 points from 10.4 xPTS (+2.5). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 15th in the league, but 10th in the table. Source of the surplus: conceding less than expected (−4.7 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.47 xG per match — 14th of 20 (league average 1.60): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 14 goals from 14.7 xG — finishing is on par. What they create is what they score.

Defence. 2.17 xGA per match — 19th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.60): allows plenty of chances near its own goal. Conceded 17 goals from 21.6 xGA — 21% fewer than expected. Part of these clean sheets rests on luck rather than defending.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.26 per match: expected pace 1.0 points per match vs the current 1.3.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.30 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.32. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.6 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Aston Villa and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full EPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league