The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Coventry City: 42% against 30%. Attack against defence: level, 1.44 and 1.42 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Newcastle United have taken 3.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | 18 | 5 | 3 | 4.5 | −1.6 | 1.00 | 1.72 |
| Newcastle United | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | 1.11 | 1.87 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.