The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Everton: 52% against 24%. Attack against defence: Everton should create more, 1.77 expected goals a match against 1.27. Read the table with care: Newcastle United have taken 3.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | 1.11 | 1.87 |
| Everton | 7 | 5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | 1.67 | 1.44 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.