Everton

Next match

Brentford · away, 23 Nov 2026
Win 34% · draw 23% · defeat 43%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 16 points from 14.6 xPTS (+1.4). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 7th in the league, but 6th in the table. Points match the quality of play. Inside that balance fewer goals conceded than expected (−5.5 vs xGA), but finishing falls short (−5.0 vs xG) — one cancels the other.

Attack. 1.70 xG per match — 6th of 20 (league average 1.60): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 12 goals from 17.0 xG — 29% fewer than expected. Finishing is clearly below par — the chances are the same, so the goals will probably follow.

Defence. 1.55 xGA per match — 10th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.60): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 10 goals from 15.5 xGA — 35% fewer than expected. Part of these clean sheets rests on luck rather than defending.

Playing to its level. Points (16) are close to the quality of play (14.6 xPTS).

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.60 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.40. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 7.0 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Everton and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full EPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league