Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid: match prediction
BarcelonaVS
Atlético MadridThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win76%Barcelona
Draw13%
Away win11%Atlético Madrid
Expected points, home2.42
What to expect
Barcelona are favourites: 76% to win against 11%. Attack against defence: Barcelona should create more, 2.42 expected goals a match against 1.50. Read the table with care: Atlético Madrid have taken 7.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1 | 12 | 33 | 29.3 | +3.7 | 3.57 | 1.16 |
| Atlético Madrid | 3 | 12 | 28 | 21.0 | +7.0 | 1.85 | 1.27 |
Head to head
They have already met this season: Atletico Madrid 1:2 Barcelona (2026-11-08).
Recent matches
Atletico Madrid — Barcelona 1:2Barcelona — 
Alaves 6:1Barcelona — 
Real Madrid 1:2
Real Betis — Barcelona 2:5Barcelona — 
Getafe 3:0Atletico Madrid — Barcelona 1:2
Levante — Atletico Madrid 0:2Atletico Madrid — 
Deportivo La Coruna 1:0
Espanyol — Atletico Madrid 0:1Alaves — Atletico Madrid 1:2Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table → · LaLiga: next round predictions