Barcelona

Next match

Villarreal · at home, 22 Nov 2026
Win 72% · draw 14% · defeat 14%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 33 points from 29.3 xPTS (+3.7). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 1st. Source of the surplus: finishing (+5.2 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−0.9 vs xGA).

Attack. 3.57 xG per match — 1st of 20 (league average 1.57): creates more in front of goal than anyone in the league. Scored 48 goals from 42.8 xG — 12% more than expected — the best finishing in the league. A small finishing bonus, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 1.16 xGA per match — 3rd of 20 for solidity (league average 1.57): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 13 goals from 13.9 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed. What they allow is what they concede.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.31 per match: expected pace 2.4 points per match vs the current 2.8.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.75 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 2.46. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 12.3 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Barcelona and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full LaLiga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league