Points. 18 points from 15.6 xPTS (+2.4). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 2nd in the league, but 1st in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+2.2 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−1.0 vs xGA).
Attack. 4.31 xG per match — 1st of 20 (league average 1.64): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 28 goals from 25.8 xG (+2.2): the ball is going in more often than such chances usually allow. Finishing like this rarely lasts.
Defence. 1.17 xGA per match — 4th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.64). Conceded 6 goals from 7.0 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.40 per match: expected pace 2.6 points per match vs the current 3.0.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 3.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 2.39. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 12.0 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | away | 2026-09-19 | 2.41 |
| Getafe | home | 2026-10-11 | 2.92 |
| Real Betis | away | 2026-10-18 | 2.52 |
| Real Madrid | home | 2026-10-25 | 1.72 |
| Alavés | home | 2026-11-01 | 2.39 |