The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Barcelona are favourites: 67% to win against 18%. Attack against defence: Barcelona should create more, 2.66 expected goals a match against 1.96. Read the table with care: Barcelona have taken 2.6 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1 | 7 | 21 | 18.4 | +2.6 | 4.20 | 1.11 |
| Real Madrid | 4 | 7 | 15 | 16.5 | −1.5 | 2.81 | 1.11 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.