Rayo Vallecano — Alavés 1:1
Rayo Vallecano
AlavésThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Who deserved it
A draw, but Alavés created more (2.22 xG against 0.57) — points dropped.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0.57 | +0.4 | 0.41 |
| Alavés | 1 | 2.22 | −1.2 | 2.42 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47' | Sergio Camello | Rayo Vallecano | 0.11 | Jorge De Frutos |
| 83' | Mariano | Alavés | 0.22 |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25' | Antonio Martínez | Alavés | 0.60 | off target |
| 43' | Antonio Martínez | Alavés | 0.50 | hit the woodwork |
| 87' | Antonio Martínez | Alavés | 0.46 | off target |
Shots: Rayo Vallecano 8, Alavés 15; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 3.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Rayo Vallecano 0.40, Alavés 1.26: a clear edge for Alavés. In the second half xG was Rayo Vallecano 0.18, Alavés 0.98: a clear edge for Alavés. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Alavés scored 1 from 2.22 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.
How it fits the season
Rayo Vallecano: −1.5 for the season (14 in the table). Alavés: −3.8 (12). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.