The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Real Sociedad: 47% against 29%. Attack against defence: level, 1.60 and 1.56 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Real Sociedad have taken 2.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | 1.34 | 1.83 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 7 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 1.30 | 1.86 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.