The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Villarreal are favourites: 81% to win against 7%. Attack against defence: Villarreal should create more, 2.17 expected goals a match against 1.26. Villarreal are 5.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 9 | 7 | 8 | 13.3 | −5.3 | 2.80 | 1.63 |
| Getafe | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 0.90 | 1.54 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.