The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Valencia created more (1.29 xG against 0.96) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 0 | 1.29 | −1.3 | 1.60 |
| Real Betis | 1 | 0.96 | +0.0 | 1.12 |
Valencia: −1.9 for the season (19 in the table). Real Betis: +6.2 (3). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.