Valencia

Next match

Rayo Vallecano · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 23% · draw 25% · defeat 52%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 9 points from 12.7 xPTS (−3.7). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 17th in the league, but 19th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−4.2 goals vs xG).

Attack. 1.02 xG per match — 19th of 20 (league average 1.57): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 8 goals from 12.2 xG — 34% fewer than expected. Finishing is clearly below par — the chances are the same, so the goals will probably follow.

Defence. 1.63 xGA per match — 11th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.57): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 20 goals from 19.6 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed. What they allow is what they concede.

Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.31 points per match: expected pace 1.1 points per match vs the current 0.8.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 0.75 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.10. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.5 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Valencia and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full LaLiga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league