Points. 15 points from 9.1 xPTS (+5.9) — the biggest overperformance in the league. By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 8th in the league, but 3rd in the table. Source of the surplus: conceding less than expected (−4.8 vs xGA).
Attack. 2.02 xG per match — 4th of 20 (league average 1.64): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Only 8 goals scored from 12.2 xG (−4.2): the chances are there, the finishing is not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will come.
Defence. 1.81 xGA per match — 15th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.64). Conceded 6 goals from 10.8 xGA — 4.8 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. And plenty of chances are allowed near their own goal — without this luck they would concede far more.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.98 per match: expected pace 1.5 points per match vs the current 2.5.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 2.50 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.66. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.3 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña | away | 2026-09-20 | 1.64 |
| Osasuna | home | 2026-10-11 | 2.06 |
| Barcelona | home | 2026-10-18 | 0.38 |
| Celta Vigo | away | 2026-10-25 | 1.68 |
| Málaga | home | 2026-11-01 | 2.53 |