The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Close, but Brest have a bit more: 42% against 29%.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
In the model 0:1 comes up most often (about 14%), then 1:1 and 0:0.
Brest are slightly ahead on the model's expected goals: 1.21 against 0.96. Recent results favour Lorient: 8 points from the last 5 matches against 4 points. The table is unfair to Brest: 6.5 points below their play. The gap usually narrows, though not necessarily at once.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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