Ligue 1 round 9 predictions by xG

All 9 matches of the Ligue 1 round: the model's chances, expected goals and why the picture looks the way it does.

The most one-sided match of the round: Lyon — Angers (66% for the favourite); the most even: Strasbourg — Auxerre.

• Le Havre — Paris Saint-Germain30 Oct, 18:00 UTCHome win 19% · draw 18% · away win 62%
• Nice — Rennes30 Oct, 18:00 UTCHome win 26% · draw 20% · away win 53%
• Lille — Lens30 Oct, 20:05 UTCHome win 31% · draw 23% · away win 46%
• Troyes — Le Mans31 Oct, 19:45 UTCHome win 45% · draw 23% · away win 32%
• Strasbourg — Auxerre1 Nov, 14:00 UTCHome win 40% · draw 24% · away win 36%
• Paris FC — Monaco1 Nov, 16:15 UTCHome win 60% · draw 25% · away win 15%
• Lyon — Angers1 Nov, 16:15 UTCHome win 66% · draw 19% · away win 15%
• Marseille — Toulouse1 Nov, 19:45 UTCHome win 29% · draw 20% · away win 51%
• Lorient — Brest2 Nov, 19:45 UTCHome win 29% · draw 29% · away win 42%

An xG model, not betting tips and not a guarantee.

What are the Ligue 1 round 9 predictions?

The most one-sided match of the round: Lyon — Angers (66% for the favourite); the most even: Strasbourg — Auxerre. Below is every match: the model's chances, expected goals and why the picture looks the way it does.

How are the predictions calculated?

A Poisson model over xG works out the chances: how dangerous each side is in attack and how much it allows, with a home advantage applied. Expected goals and the likeliest scores come from the same model. It is an assessment of play, not a guarantee of the result.

Why might the favourite not win?

The highest chance this round is 66% to win: in roughly 34 cases out of a hundred the favourite does not win. Chance plays a visible part in a single match, so the model is usually more accurate over a run than in one game.

Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Fixtures · Fantasy picks for the Ligue 1 →