The table shows how many points a club has won and how many its chances deserved (xPTS). The Δ gap is either a cushion or a regression risk.
More points than performance:
Paris Saint-Germain,
Lille,
Marseille,
Nice,
Monaco.
Fewer points than performance:
Brest,
Toulouse,
Troyes,
Le Havre.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 23 | 20.1 | +2.9 | 2.36 | 1.32 | |
| 2 | 10 | 21 | 13.8 | +7.3 | 1.39 | 1.43 | |
| 3 | 10 | 20 | 19.8 | +0.2 | 1.76 | 0.87 | |
| 4 | 10 | 18 | 12.4 | +5.6 | 1.85 | 2.18 | |
| 5 | 10 | 17 | 16.2 | +0.8 | 1.67 | 1.19 | |
| 6 | 10 | 17 | 11.7 | +5.3 | 1.46 | 1.79 | |
| 7 | 10 | 16 | 11.7 | +4.3 | 1.10 | 1.43 | |
| 8 | 10 | 16 | 16.3 | −0.3 | 2.26 | 1.99 | |
| 9 | 10 | 15 | 18.8 | −3.8 | 2.09 | 1.20 | |
| 10 | 10 | 15 | 15.4 | −0.4 | 1.24 | 1.01 | |
| 11 | 10 | 13 | 14.9 | −1.9 | 1.88 | 1.60 | |
| 12 | 10 | 13 | 18.0 | −5.0 | 1.76 | 1.25 | |
| 13 | 10 | 10 | 10.3 | −0.3 | 1.31 | 1.66 | |
| 14 | 10 | 10 | 10.4 | −0.4 | 1.22 | 2.01 | |
| 15 | 10 | 8 | 9.7 | −1.7 | 1.39 | 2.06 | |
| 16 | 10 | 8 | 9.6 | −1.6 | 1.31 | 2.06 | |
| 17 | 10 | 8 | 10.8 | −2.8 | 1.19 | 1.60 | |
| 18 | 10 | 2 | 10.0 | −8.0 | 1.43 | 1.99 |
All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Ligue 1 top scorers with xG → · Fantasy picks for the Ligue 1 → · Ligue 1: next round predictions · See the league on the interactive matrix →
Right now Paris Saint-Germain leads both by points (23) and by performance (xPTS 20.1): first place is backed by the quality of chances.
Points depend on how many chances a team converted, while xPTS is built on their quality: how many points the team's shots and the shots against its goal deserved. A team that scores more than its xG wins matches that were even on the pitch and sits higher than it plays; when finishing evens out, the gap usually shrinks. In Ligue 1 right now the leader by points and by performance is the same club, but others show a gap: Le Havre falls shortest, 8.0 points below performance.
xPTS means expected points. For every match we use the quality of both teams' chances to work out how many points each deserved and add them up over the season. The difference between actual and expected points shows whether a team is lucky or falling short. It is an assessment of play, not a forecast of results.
Lille has the most points above performance: 7.3 more than its chances gave. Le Havre falls shortest: 8.0 points below what its chances gave. Over a long run such a gap usually shrinks, though on shorter stretches it can persist.