Lorient vs Rennes: match prediction

Lorient

VS

Rennes

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

48%Lorient

24%Draw

28%Rennes

The model rates Lorient clearly higher: 48% against 28%.

Expected goals and likely score

1.73Lorient · model expected goals · Rennes1.27

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	6	4	2	1
1	9	11	7	3	1
2	7	9	6	3	1
3	4	5	3	1	0
4	2	2	1	1	0

Matches with chances like these most often end 1:1 (about 11%), then 2:1 and 1:0.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

A small edge in chances: Lorient, xG 1.73 against 1.27. Recent results favour Lorient: 10 points from the last 5 matches against 6 points.

Form: recent matches

LorientWWDLW

RennesWLWLL

Team comparison

108

League position

1516

Points

15.416.3

Expected points (xPTS)

1.242.26

xG per match

1.011.99

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions