Marseille vs Le Mans: match prediction

Marseille

VS

Le Mans

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

59%Marseille

18%Draw

23%Le Mans

Clear favourites: Marseille, 59% to win against 23%.

Expected goals and likely score

2.69Marseille · model expected goals · Le Mans1.69

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1	2	2	1	0
1	3	6	5	3	1
2	5	8	6	4	2
3	4	7	6	3	1
4	3	5	4	2	1

The most common scores at these chances: 2:1 (about 8%), 3:1 and 2:2.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

Almost one-way traffic on expected goals: Marseille 2.69 against 1.69. Marseille are collecting points far more steadily: 15 points from the last 5 matches, the opponent 2 points. Marseille have 5.6 points more than their play earned; a cushion like that usually shrinks.

Form: recent matches

MarseilleWWWWW

Le MansLLDLD

Team comparison

415

League position

188

Points

12.49.7

Expected points (xPTS)

1.851.39

xG per match

2.182.06

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions